1/22/2024 0 Comments Nfl turnover leaders 2021Not only have the Colts been lucky with fumble recoveries, they’ve also been getting a career-best season from Carson Wentz in terms of taking care of the football. Sources: Pro Football focus, ESPN Stats & Information Group A team’s listed quarterback is the most recent starter. NFL teams according to their total Turnover-Worthy Plays Over Expected (TWPOE), summed for all quarterbacks who have thrown at least one pass this season, along with their primary QB and total team turnovers team Wentz has kept the turnover-worthy plays down 2 Still, there’s a large residual luck component in interceptions, and we wanted a way to measure it to help identify which teams have been the most fortunate with interceptions so far this season. Interception rate shows some stability from year to year at the player level, indicating that the ability to avoid or create turnovers through the air is a skill, and Pro Football Focus charts a statistic it calls “turnover-worthy plays” for each quarterback snap in the league that’s even less influenced by randomness. Throwing picks in the NFL - and avoiding them - appears to be something under the control of the quarterback to at least some degree. While fumble recoveries are almost completely random, the picture is a little different for interceptions. NFL teams by total turnover margin through Week 12 of the 2021 season, with breakdown of team and opponent turnovers by type The Colts have had good luck with turnovers in 2021 And the Colts have been nearly as good at picking off opposing quarterbacks, with 14 interceptions over the course of the season, tied for fourth in the league. Over their past four games - a span in which they went 3-1 - the Colts scooped up four fumbles, tied for second in the league. Through Week 12, Indianapolis has recovered a league-leading 13 fumbles and is tied for third in the NFL with a fumble margin of plus-4. Good fortune of this sort has been a frequent companion of the Colts all season. It was splendid luck for Indianapolis, and the Colts capitalized on it immediately, extending their lead and all but ending the competitive portion of the game. That the ball would squeeze between his belly and the turf, pop free and then traverse the entire span of the middle of the field - from hash to hash - could never have been predicted. "> 1 there was no good reason why McKenzie should have tripped on this particular kick return without ever being touched down. This kick return in Buffalo is a shining example: Other than some hand-waving to the fabled “turf monster,” Highmark Stadium in Buffalo is open air, but has always had turf of some kind installed on the playing surface. While the result applies in some measure to interceptions, it is particularly true of fumble recoveries. Carrie was eventually tackled at the 2, and Colts running back Jonathan Taylor scored a touchdown on Indianapolis’s next offensive play.Īn early finding of NFL analytics is that turnovers are largely a function of luck. ![]() McKenzie stumbled at the 15, spilling to the ground on the left hash without being touched, and watched as the ball squirted out from under him and sped across the middle of the field to the right hash, into the arms of cornerback T.J. McKenzie advanced to the 10, juked to the left slightly to set up the defender crossing the 20 and veered hard right - a little too hard, as it turned out. The kickoff by Rigoberto Sanchez sailed 62 yards and was fielded by Bills return specialist Isaiah McKenzie at the Bills’ 3-yard line. ![]() ![]() Near the end of the second quarter in the Week 11 game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Buffalo Bills, the Colts kicked off to the Bills after a field goal made it 17-7. But what if football is also largely about being lucky? It’s about grit, and winning through toughness. It’s about imposing your will and dominating your opponent.
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